A list of all my bets

  • Starcraft pros won’t be beaten by a bot in 2018. The bet will be resolved in 2019 to allow for events happening in 2018 but not being made public until later.
    • For: Me
    • Against: Miles Brundage
    • Start date: 04-01-2017
    • Resolution date: 15-05-2019
    • Amount: 100$
    • Status: Unclear. Deepmind’s AlphaStar defeated TLO and MaNa in 2018, but in hard to judge circumstances, the APM limit may not have been low enough, so through superior input speed AS might have won, and the bet implicitly assumed that the match would be “fair” regarding input.
  • The spread of PC culture in the US was due to a PsyOps intervention from a US rival.
    • For: Riva-Melissa Tez
    • Against: Me
    • Start date: 17-12-2018
    • Resolution date: Two years from start date (17-12-2020)
    • Amount: 100$ (inflation adjusted)
    • Status: Won
  • Pollution (PMs, NOx, SOx, VOCs) impair cognitive function
    • For: Me
    • Against: Alexey Guzey
    • Start date: 2020-01-03
    • Resolution date: Five years from start date (2025-01-03)
    • Amount: 100$ (inflation adjusted)
    • Status: Ongoing
  • COVID daily deaths will peak before 30th of April, 2020
    • For: Me
    • Against: Robin Hanson
    • Start date: 2020-04-09
    • Resolution date: 31st December, 2020
    • Amount: 100$ (I pay if I lose), $200 (I get if I win)
    • Status: Lost. In early December daily deaths increased past the first peak.
    • Details here
  • The content of this bet will be revealed in the future. The hash of the text that defines the bet (In SHA-512) is
    • 5975486a8bca7f74202163d9ef02bf02caed713cf2cbd33f896fdbc26ba2a2d88cd5c4db85670691d2d4aa2c0b913b32b5b51e64ea39c985c612aa44a6dfefde
  • Once the dark matter puzzle is solved, its solution won't lead to any advances that can be put to use other than a) To develop new physics theories or b) To develop new scientific equipment within 40 years of the discovery.
    • For: Me
    • Against: Ben Reinhardt
    • Start date: 23rd November 2020
    • Resolution date: TBD
    • Amount: The loser choses between 1000$ inflation adjusted, 0.6 troy ounces of gold, or 1/10th of the wages of the least paid of us in case we have jobs.
    • Status: Ongoing